Bet Comparator
Not all casino bets are created equal. While all casino games favor the house, some bets are mathematically far worse than others. This comparator tool allows you to select multiple bets and compare them side-by-side across key metrics: house edge, expected value, variance, and long-term cost.
Understanding which bets offer better mathematical odds is essential knowledge for anyone studying gambling, regardless of whether you ever place a bet. This tool demonstrates why informed players avoid certain wagers entirely and why casinos prominently feature their most profitable (for them) options.
Select Bets to Compare
Choose 2-4 different bets to compare their mathematical properties. Select a game type and specific bet for each slot.
1 First Bet
2 Second Bet
3 Third Bet (Optional)
4 Fourth Bet (Optional)
Comparison Results
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Analysis
Understanding Bet Comparison Metrics
When comparing casino bets, several mathematical properties determine their relative value. Understanding these metrics helps explain why certain bets are avoided by knowledgeable players and why casinos design games with varying house advantages.
House Edge
The house edge represents the percentage of each wager that the casino expects to retain over the long term. A 5% house edge means the casino keeps $5 of every $100 wagered on average. According to the UNLV Center for Gaming Research, house edge is the primary factor determining a game's profitability for the casino and cost to the player.
Lower house edge means slower loss of money over time. The difference between a 0.5% house edge (blackjack with basic strategy) and a 25% house edge (keno) is enormous—the latter extracts money 50 times faster per dollar wagered.
Expected Value (EV)
Expected value calculates the average outcome of a bet over infinite trials. For casino bets, EV is always negative for the player, but some bets have less negative EV than others. A $100 bet with -$0.50 EV is far preferable to a $100 bet with -$25 EV.
The Mathematics of Expected Value
Formula: EV = (Probability of Win × Payout) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)
Example - European Roulette Red/Black:
- Win probability: 18/37 = 48.65%
- Payout: 1:1 (win $100 on $100 bet)
- EV = (0.4865 × $100) - (0.5135 × $100) = -$2.70 per $100 bet
This -2.70% matches the house edge for even-money roulette bets.
Variance and Volatility
Variance measures how much actual results deviate from expected value in the short term. High-variance bets produce dramatic swings—big wins and big losses—while low-variance bets produce more consistent, predictable outcomes. The Encyclopedia Britannica explains variance as a fundamental statistical concept measuring the spread of possible outcomes.
Casinos exploit high variance to create excitement and the illusion of opportunity. A slot machine with high variance will occasionally produce large jackpots, making players believe they can "win big," while the house edge guarantees the casino profits over millions of spins.
Payout Odds vs. True Odds
Every casino bet pays less than "true odds" would dictate. The gap between what a bet should pay (based on actual probability) and what it does pay creates the house edge. Understanding this discrepancy is fundamental to gambling mathematics as explained by Wolfram MathWorld's entry on odds.
Common Bets Ranked by House Edge
This reference table shows the approximate house edge for common casino bets, ranked from best to worst for the player. These figures represent standard game rules as regulated by gaming commissions, including at Kangwon Land, South Korea's only legal casino for citizens.
| Game/Bet | House Edge | Variance | Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack (Basic Strategy) | 0.5% | Low | Best |
| Craps (Don't Pass/Don't Come) | 1.36% | Low | Excellent |
| Baccarat (Banker) | 1.06% | Low | Excellent |
| Craps (Pass Line) | 1.41% | Low | Very Good |
| Baccarat (Player) | 1.24% | Low | Very Good |
| European Roulette (Even Money) | 2.70% | Low-Medium | Good |
| American Roulette (Even Money) | 5.26% | Low-Medium | Poor |
| Slot Machines (Average) | 5-15% | High | Poor |
| Baccarat (Tie) | 14.36% | Very High | Very Poor |
| Keno | 25-40% | Very High | Worst |
Why Bet Comparison Matters
Understanding the mathematical differences between bets serves several important purposes, even for those who never gamble.
Educational Value
Gambling mathematics illustrates practical applications of probability theory, expected value, and statistics. These concepts apply broadly to decision-making under uncertainty, from investment strategies to insurance purchases. The National Institutes of Health has published research on how understanding gambling mathematics can improve general numeracy and decision-making skills.
Consumer Protection
Knowing which bets are mathematically worse helps identify predatory gambling products. Keno, with its 25-40% house edge, extracts money from players far faster than blackjack at 0.5%. This information empowers consumers to recognize when gambling products are designed for maximum profit extraction rather than entertainment value.
Policy Understanding
South Korea's strict gambling laws reflect awareness that all casino bets are designed for the player to lose. Understanding comparative house edges helps explain why regulators treat gambling as a potential social harm requiring government intervention, as discussed in our analysis of future gambling regulation.
The Sucker Bet Phenomenon
Certain bets within casino games are dramatically worse than others, yet casinos prominently feature them. These "sucker bets" exploit player misconceptions about probability.
Why Casinos Offer Better and Worse Bets
Casinos use games with low house edge (like blackjack) to attract players, knowing that many will also make high-edge side bets or move to more profitable games. The variety also creates an illusion of choice—players feel they're making strategic decisions when, mathematically, they're simply choosing how fast to lose.
Recognizing Poor Bets
- Tie bets in baccarat: 14.36% house edge vs. 1.06% for banker
- Insurance in blackjack: 7.5% house edge vs. 0.5% for basic strategy
- Proposition bets in craps: Up to 16.67% vs. 1.41% for pass line
- Single number roulette: Same 5.26% edge but extreme variance creates false hope
Important Notice
This comparator is for educational purposes only. While some bets have lower house edges than others, all casino bets have negative expected value for the player. No bet is "good" in the sense of being profitable—some are simply less costly than others. The only way to avoid gambling losses is to not gamble.
If you or someone you know struggles with gambling, visit our responsible gambling resources for help and support information.
Connection to South Korean Gambling Context
At Kangwon Land, Korea's only legal casino for citizens, all standard game types are available with house edges matching international norms. The casino's consistent profitability—generating over $950 million annually—demonstrates how mathematical advantage works at scale, regardless of individual bet selection.
The enforcement of gambling laws in South Korea reflects governmental understanding that even the "best" casino bets are designed to extract money from players over time. Whether someone bets on blackjack at 0.5% house edge or keno at 30%, the mathematical outcome remains the same: player losses fund casino profits.
Using This Tool for Research
Researchers, students, and journalists may find this comparator useful for understanding gambling mathematics in practical terms. By seeing how different bets compare across multiple metrics, the mathematical reality of casino gambling becomes tangible and comprehensible.
For more detailed analysis of specific games, explore our other educational tools:
- House Edge Calculator – Calculate expected losses over time
- Probability Calculator – Understand true odds and expected value
- Risk of Ruin Calculator – Calculate bankruptcy probability
- Session Simulator – Visualize how variance affects outcomes